Scenario planning doesn’t need to be complicated, even in the toughest, unexpected moments

For business leaders and communications professionals working through the COVID-19 crisis, scenario planning has never been more important. But it’s also not all that difficult.

Adapted from military intelligence, the original scenario-planning method recognizes that many factors can combine in complex ways to create surprising outcomes. This often includes things that can be extremely difficult to predict, and such thinking is meant to help organizations prepare for otherwise unforeseen but profound shifts in the social, political or economic landscape.

If that sounds complicated, it doesn’t need to be. And for the less sweeping, but still consequential, crises that are likely to come your way, you can’t afford it to be.

Even if you’ve been through sophisticated scenario planning, unexpected events can still challenge your business and require you to think through and communicate decisions that you had not previously contemplated. Customers, employees and other stakeholders will turn to you, as a leader in your organization, in these pivotal moments for reassuring guidance, useful information, or a deserved explanation.

What would you say if an internal investigation uncovers malfeasance, or if it doesn’t? How do we announce the outcome of a lawsuit, whichever way it goes? How do we communicate the loss of operations or revenue resulting from the current pandemic? And most significantly, how would you communicate the loss of an employee’s life?

Issues like these need your hands-on management even while you are doing everything else that is part of your day-to-day job. That’s another reason why this process can’t be complicated. You need a fast, efficient method for thinking through the problem at hand and how you will respond to it. You need the comfort of knowing that you’ll have something to say when all eyes turn to you, even if you don’t have all the information or are waiting for another shoe to drop.

By asking the following questions, you and your management team should emerge after a few quick hours with a solid, proactive framework to address any of the possible outcomes of your looming crisis, preventing you from scrambling to catch up when it does finally hit.

• Objective – How do you want your organization to be perceived once the situation is resolved?
• Messages – What three things are most important for your audience to hear regardless of the outcome?
• Outcomes – What are all the possible outcomes of the crisis you are contemplating?
• Audience – Who will be impacted by these outcomes, and how? And who might be interested in these outcomes, but not impacted?
• Statement – What must we say to these audiences to achieve our objective?

There are some other things that should be considered during scenario planning:

• The best spokesperson is the person who has the best relationship with your audience, and you may need more than one if you are addressing multiple audiences.
• The best channel for your spokesperson – a press release, letter, a phone call, an email or tweet, etc. – is the one your audience expects you to use most often or is required by your regulator, if you have one.
• Murphy’s Law dictates that the members of your team who need to greenlight any statement before it is issued are usually the ones who can’t be reached. Identify alternate parties who can conduct the necessary reviews in a pinch.
• There may be third parties who will stand up and support your statement, so think about who they may be.
• Finally, when you’ve communicated your initial decision or response to the crisis, you may have to work through a separate scenario plan if the crisis continues to unfold.

This process works. We’ve used it a lot and know from experience that business leaders who can pause and think though the several possible outcomes of a pivotal moment and how it impacts their key stakeholders will be in a much stronger position to achieve their business objectives. 

Just like you, we are actively monitoring the COVID-19 global pandemic. Our team has quickly acclimated to a new way of working while staying locked on addressing our clients’ most pressing needs. Here you will find a toolkit of resources that may prove useful as you grapple with the unprecedented challenges we’re all facing.

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Scenario Planning for Business Leaders Amid COVID-19

For business leaders and communications professionals working through the COVID-19 crisis, scenario planning has never been more important. But it’s also not all that difficult.

As our insights evolve along with the COVID-19 crisis, we’ve also gathered some relevant perspectives from our archives:

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How to communicate difficult news with empathy and grace

As professional services organizations navigate one of the most fluid and uncertain health and economic crises of our lifetime, firm leaders face a multitude of complex and interconnected issues around their most precious commodity: their talent.

Given the pandemic’s impact on virtually every business and industry, from neighborhood coffee shops to global conglomerates, professional services organizations – trailing indicators of the macro economy – are exploring all options to preserve cash and bolster their financial positions.

Some of those options are the same as in any sudden downturn. But in this case, firm leaders must also grapple with the fact that this is a health and human crisis – not just a financial one. It’s not only their coworker’s livelihoods at stake – it’s their lives.

So unfortunately, looking back to learn from previous downturns has limited utility. Those in the trenches during the dot-com crash of 2000, the horrific events of Sept. 11, 2001 or the great recession of 2007-2009 know the conversation around staff reductions today is much different.

Further complicating matters, mental health and wellness were major issues before COVID-19 kicked professional anxiety into a new gear – and firms are reluctant to part ways with talent whom they may want to rehire in a few months’ time.

While every firm’s situation and circumstances are different, so too are the considerations for reducing professional and staff-related costs – and, equally important, the process for communicating those decisions.

Whether you’ve already communicated the measures your firm has taken to reduce staff-related costs or are in the midst of advising leadership on how to communicate an imminent move, it’s worth reiterating: this is a health and human crisis. Before you say or do anything, consider how your actions might be perceived by those who are suffering or close to those suffering.

Here are additional points to keep in mind when communicating with internal and external audiences:

• Professional services firm leaders we’ve spoken to have acknowledged mistakes they made during the 2007-2009 financial crisis. They should acknowledge those to their teams as well – and show how those lessons are informing decisions this time around.
• Still, no one was prepared for this type of event and we’re all learning as we go. Humility signals authenticity and breeds trust.

(2) Prepare your leaders to be in front

• Leaders can provide vision, hope and inspiration during a time of crisis. Help them seize the moment by openly, regularly expressing empathy with the needs and concerns of different stakeholders.
• Embrace transparency around the business impact of the crisis and the steps your firm is taking – and pivots you’re making – to successfully maneuver through it.

(3) Remember that prospective talent remains an important stakeholder

• Current employees are the priority. But remember that you were in a pitched battle for talent leading up to the crisis – and you could be again soon. So be sure that your vision and values are clear in every single communication.
• Emphasize the steps your firm is taking to preserve its financial strength and resilience.

(4) Stress a “leaders eat last” message

• Now is not the time to be modest; if leaders and owners are making sacrifices to bolster their firms, that should be communicated to all employees.

(5) Be up front about hard staffing decisions

• Be clear and coherent with impacted employees. The right thing is to treat them with compassion; if they are, they’ll tell others – their friends in the company and even prospective employees.
• If your firm can provide severance, make sure to let employees know that you did. While providing details surrounding severance packages may not be your organization’s norm, this crisis is different. Transparency now will pay dividends later.  

It’s worth repeating our central theme – this crisis is about people, not numbers. Professional services firms need to keep this front and center in their decision-making when it comes to communications or otherwise.

As we all continue to navigate the unprecedented leadership challenges and opportunities created by the COVID-19 crisis, we’ve had the opportunity to connect with a wide range of professional services leaders.

Those conversations have produced a wealth of perspective surrounding the unique communications challenges professional services leaders face in this uncertain time. Below is a collection of insights that may prove useful as you continue to navigate these unchartered waters.

Identify, segment and prioritize your stakeholders – In the coming days, leaders are working to exit triage mode and move into a more systematic, sustainable cadence of communication with internal and external stakeholders. It’s an opportune time to think about which audience segments are most important now and how frequently you interact with them. You’ve likely (and rightly) made clients your first priority. If so, now is the time to think more broadly about other key stakeholders and what messages and assurances they need to hear.

Increase your cadence – If it feels like you’re overcommunicating, you’re probably doing it right. The frequency of your communication to the organization should be two-to-three times the norm. Avoid the temptation to overthink your message; instead, focus on being nimble and authentic. Be comfortable making decisions on the best available information and pivoting as you learn more. Take a moment to think about new internal and external audiences who need your attention. This should be a constant exercise.

Expand your feedback networks – In disruptive times, your first team is typically the executive committee or board of advisors – the group that will provide the input necessary to manage through the initial phases of uncertainty. We are entering a transition period; empathizing with the changing needs of clients and internal stakeholders will be critical and challenging. It will require new feedback avenues and greater effort to obtain information from every corner inside and outside the organization. The best intelligence in a crisis comes from the crisis itself – you will need frequent, fresh, first-hand information to adapt and respond effectively.

Prepare your frontline leaders – In the same way that you are being tested so are the executives with direct connections to partners and clients. Those frontline leaders need your coaching and your help to predict what questions and information will be asked of them. For example, following the massive unemployment numbers steadily being released, the question on just about everyone’s mind is, “Is my job secure?” Understanding your team’s top-of-mind concerns and providing as much clarity as possible will be key to keeping them productive.

Be willing to recast your strongest communicators – We all have various strengths and not every leader in your organization is a strong, confident communicator. Accept this reality, identify the leaders who excel at interpersonal communications and be willing to recast them accordingly. In times of rampant uncertainty, you’re better off redeploying your leaders based on an assessment of strengths than trying to re-tool. The stakes are too high to leave things in the hands of weak or ineffective communicators.

Anticipate and prepare for new media narratives – Traditional news outlets are enjoying a day in the sun as audiences rely on and engage with their reporting now more than ever. While initial media narratives centered on business continuity issues in the wake of COVID-19, we are beginning to see the narrative shift toward staff-cost/workforce reductions, confirmations of COVID-19 diagnoses, the myriad implications of a prolonged lockdown, and how the world will change as a result of the pandemic. Be prepared for these shifts in attention and for a new expectation for engagement by leaders amidst an international health crisis.

We’re here to help and would welcome a chat to discuss what we’re learning in real time.